Buy Low, Very Low

As the second half of the 2009 MLB season is about to start, you should be analyzing your whole fantasy team from your starting pitcher to your lowest bench spot. Take a gander at each player, ask yourself, is this guy worth having on my team for the stretch run? Is he injured? Will he be back soon? Is he getting everyday at-bats? If he's young is he about to hit the wall? I explained this in yesterday's blog about young pitchers hitting the wall and I listed the pitchers whom I think will be effected. check it out.
Is this player performing less than his potential and is he ready for a big second half? Take full inventory of your team, be critical. If you got some question mark players on the roster maybe its time to make a move, not just any move. Look for the players that haven't played to their potential and history says or their career stats might tell you that this player is ready to ignite helping your team till the end of the season. One such player this year is Garrett Atkins. His stats are about half of his 3yr avg in all categories.

Garrett Atkins

2009
AB R H HR RBI BB AVG. OBP.
239 25 55 6 28 25 .230 .303

PACE
439 46 101 11 51 46 .230 .303

3 yr avg
AB R H HR RBI BB AVG. OBP.
606 95 185 25 110 62 .305 .368


How can a close to .300 career hitter, who is not injured have such a bad season? First things first, the Rockies line-up doesn't have the boppers that it had the past few years, Holliday is gone, and that's about all I have to say. Having Matt Holliday batting around you, changes the way pitchers pitch to you. Things didn't get started off in the right direction earlier in the year for the Rockies as a team, eventually fired their manager Clint Hurdle, Jim Tracy comes in the interim and decides to start the rookie Ian Stewart and sits Atkins. Looking towards the future. Atkins wasn't producing at all, Stewart was. All the new manager wants to do is win, he usually has no loyalties to any player, especially if he's not producing.

This all being said, why would you want to trade for or hold onto a player who fits this mold like Atkins. Let me tell you. Rumors are starting to spread now!!! Atkins is up on the trade block. All Atkins needs is a change of scenery, start anew with another club. The Rockies are fed up with him, and is going to be a free agent at the end of the year. Might as well get some value for him(if you are not going to play him), than seeing him sign with another team in the off season.

Rumblings throughout baseball, is that the Red Sox are looking for a 3rd baseman, yes the Red Sox. Mike Lowell's hip is not healing quickly enough, and is just getting old, something like this will probably linger all season long. Bring in Atkins...

Imagine Garrett Atkins, the .300 25 HR 100 RBI hitter, being the starting 3rd baseman for the Red Sox batting anywhere from 5th-7th. This could happen. One offer rumored to be out there is Atkins for Saito.

If you have Atkins, hold onto him. You probably held onto him this long why dump him now.
If you are in need of a 3rd baseman(1B eligible too in some leagues) I would try to acquire him. His value is about as low as it can get for his career. You might be able to get him for a bag of balls or a case of beer. To get a value player like this for basically nothing, ITS WORTH THE RISK.


Fantasy Assistant

If you have any fantasy baseball questions? Or just want another opinion...
Send them my way. line-up issues, add-drop issues, potential trade offers. Ill take a look it...

Pitchers to decline in the 2nd half

Imagine your current employer asking you to work twice as much this year compared to last year. At some point you will hit the wall and your work production will start to decrease. Today I will discuss pitchers(rookie and 1-2 yr pitchers) that are approaching their innings worked limit from years prior. There are some big name pitchers on this list, their current team depends on them every 5 days but when your arm is fatigued, you are near your career high in innings pitched, you are due for a let down. In no particular order I will list some of the pitchers are headed for a decrease in production.

Big names:
Yovanni Gallardo: already has 114INN on pace 211INN career high 110INN
Joba Chamberlain: already has 80INN on pace 163INN career high no more than 100INN
Clayton Kershaw: already has 100INN on pace 180INN career high 107INN
Rick Porcello: already has 87INN on pace 163INN career high 125 INN in Single-A
Jordan Zimmerman: already has 86INN on pace 165INN career high 106 INN Double-A


Dallas Braden: already has 112INN on pace 214INN career high no more than 97INN
Max Scherzer: already has 96 INN on pace 177 INN career high 100INN in minors
Brett Anderson
Vin Mazzaro
Trevor Cahill
Sharon Martis
Ricky Romero
Jeff Niemann
Chris Volstad
Brad Bergesen
Brian Tallet

One other angle to look at is the Year-After-Effect with pitchers. These pitchers saw their innings pitched rise last year to a point that this year they will be fatigued earlier towards the end of the season. Here's a short list of players that I am afraid potentially will lose productivity.

Cole Hamels: not having a great year to begin with
Jon Lester
Mike Pelfrey
Manny Parra: already feeling the effects
Edwin Jackson
Wandy Rodriguez


Some of these players will eventually hit their wall, and if their team is not in playoff contention, these players will be shut down for the rest of the season saving their arms for the future. Just pay attention to some of these players you do not want to head towards fantasy playoffs with pitchers not pitching to their potentials.

the Fantasy Assistant

Phils sign Pedro 1yr, $1M deal with incentives

Trying not to take the spotlight from the All-Star game tonight, after taking and passing a physical at Jefferson University Hospital, with the Phillies medical staff on-hand, the Phillies signed Pedro Martinez to a 1yr, $1M deal with a $1.5M in incentives.
The deal will be publically announced sometime tomorrow.
So does Pedro still have it in him to be a solid starting pitcher for a contending World Series Champion?
I say yes.
Even though last year he had his worst career ERA 5.16, compared to his career 2.91, he was battling injuries and just plain out of shape. Word from the Domincan where reporters have seen him work out in the past few weeks say he looks great, in shape and that his pitches look like they have jump to them. Pedro himself says he feels the best that he has in years.
He also would like to get back at the Mets for not resigning him, and partly the fans blaming him for the disastorous collapses of the last 2 years.
So I would recommend picking up Pedro Martinez for your fantasy squad down the stretch. Its worth the risk. He will defintely get the run support playing with the Phils. All a veteran multiple former Cy Young award winner needs is the competitive playoff juice, that comes with baseball inching toward September for him to regain his form.
If you have room on your bench pick him up, he won't start right away with the big club. He will go on a minor league assignment to get his pitch count up and possibly be used the next time the Phillies need a 5th started which is July 20th, but that doesn't seem likely...